The Enthusiasm Trap

“But It’s Such a Good Idea!”

I get it. You’re excited. You’ve spotted an opportunity, solved a problem in your head, and can already see the customers lining up. Your enthusiasm is infectious, friends nod approvingly, family members get excited, and everyone agrees it’s brilliant.

But passion can blind us to market realities.

Here’s what I see repeatedly in my work with growing businesses:

• Assumption of demand: “Of course people will buy this, I would!”

• Competitor blindness: “No one else is doing exactly this” (usually because it doesn’t work)

• Resource underestimation: “How hard could it be?”

The harsh reality? Every failed business owner thought they had a great idea.

The Real Cost of Getting It Wrong

Let’s break down the cost of getting it wrong:

• Time: 6-18 months of your life you’ll never get back

• Money: $50K-$500K+ in unnecessary investment (I’ve seen higher)

• Opportunity Cost: Missing genuinely good opportunities while chasing the wrong one

• Personal Impact: Stress, damaged relationships, shattered confidence

Recently, I worked with a business owner who’d spent $180,000 and eight months developing a product before discovering the market was already saturated with better-funded competitors. “I wish I’d known this stuff existed,” he told me, staring at his prototype.

A $15,000 feasibility study would have saved him $165,000 and eight months of his life.

The Five Critical Questions

Before you do anything else—before you quit your job, remortgage your house, or even register a business name—answer these five questions honestly:

1. “Is There Actually a Market?”

Not “would people like this?” but “do people currently pay money to solve this problem?”

Market research isn’t asking your friends what they think. It’s talking to real potential customers, understanding their current solutions, and quantifying their willingness to pay for something better.

I once worked with a client who was convinced his manufacturing innovation would revolutionise the industry. Three weeks of customer interviews revealed that while people agreed it was clever, no one was willing to pay the premium required to make it profitable. We pivoted to a different application where customers did pay for that level of innovation.

2. “Can You Compete and Win?”

Every market has competition, even if it’s not obvious. Sometimes you’re competing with people doing nothing, and “doing nothing” can be a very strong competitor.

Your competitive advantage needs to be:

• Sustainable (not easily copied)

• Valuable to customers (not just clever)

• Defensible (barriers to entry for others)

3. “Can You Actually Make Money?”

Revenue is vanity. Profit is sanity. Cash flow is reality.

I’ve seen too many businesses with great sales figures and terrible margins. Your idea needs to generate profit, not just revenue. This means understanding:

• True cost structure (including your time)

• Realistic pricing (what customers will actually pay)

• Path to profitability (how long until you’re making money)

4. “Do You Have What It Takes?”

Honestly assess your:

• Skills and experience (what gaps exist?)

• Time commitment (this will take longer than you think)

• Financial runway (how long can you survive without profit?)

• Risk tolerance (are you prepared for the rollercoaster?)

5. “What Could Go Wrong?”

Optimists start businesses. Pessimists make them profitable.

Risk analysis isn’t about being negative, it’s about being prepared. What are the key assumptions your idea depends on? What happens if they’re wrong? How can you test them cheaply before betting everything?

Real-World Examples

Case Study 1: The Success Story

A manufacturing client approached me with an idea for modular housing components. The housing boom was evident, demand seemed obvious, and he had the manufacturing expertise.

But instead of jumping straight into production, we invested six weeks in comprehensive feasibility analysis.

What we discovered:

• The residential market was indeed growing, but it was price-sensitive and low-margin

• The commercial modular market was smaller but paid premium prices for quality and speed

• Three potential competitors were already planning similar products

• Government regulation changes were coming that would favour his approach

The result: We repositioned the entire concept for the commercial market, developed a different go-to-market strategy, and launched with regulatory tailwinds instead of headwinds.

Outcome: $2.2M revenue in 18 months, profitable from month 8.

Case Study 2: The Near-Miss

Another client wanted to expand their successful manufacturing business into a related product line. It seemed like a natural extension—similar customers, similar processes, leveraging existing capabilities.

The feasibility study revealed a different story:

• The market was already dominated by two large players with better distribution

• Margin pressure was increasing due to overseas competition

• The investment required would have stretched resources away from their profitable core business

The decision: Don’t proceed. Instead, we identified an adjacent opportunity with 10x better prospects.

Sometimes the most valuable outcome of a feasibility study is a confident “no.”

What Professional Feasibility Analysis Actually Involves

A proper feasibility study isn’t a quick Google search and some back-of-envelope calculations. It’s a systematic evaluation covering:

Market Research & Validation

• Customer interviews and surveys with real potential buyers

• Competitor analysis and market positioning assessment

• Market sizing and growth projections based on data, not hope

Financial Modeling

• Revenue projections with assumption testing

• Comprehensive cost structure development

• Break-even analysis and sensitivity scenarios

Operational Assessment

• Resource requirements (people, systems, facilities)

• Supply chain and logistics considerations

• Regulatory and compliance requirements

Risk Analysis

• Key assumptions identification and testing

• Scenario planning (best case, worst case, most likely)

• Mitigation strategies for identified risks

The output? A clear go/no-go recommendation backed by data, not emotion.

The Investment Perspective

“Feasibility studies cost money,” clients sometimes say.

So does failure. And failure costs a lot more.

Typical feasibility investment: $5,000-$25,000 Typical business failure cost: $50,000-$500,000+

But here’s what you actually get for that investment:

• Clear recommendation with supporting data

• If “go”: Roadmap for launch with risks identified and mitigated

• If “no-go”: Understanding of why, often with alternative opportunities identified

• Peace of mind that you’ve done your homework

More importantly, you get the confidence to invest properly when the analysis says “go,” or the wisdom to walk away when it says “stop.”

When to Get Professional Help

Not every idea needs a full professional feasibility study. Here’s how to decide:

You Can DIY If:

• Low-risk, low-investment opportunity

• You have deep industry knowledge and objectivity

• Simple business model with clear comparables

• Minimal downside if you’re wrong

Get Professional Help If:

• Significant investment required (time or money)

• Entering unfamiliar markets or industries

• Complex business model or multiple stakeholders

• You’re too emotionally invested to be objective

• The cost of being wrong is high

Great Ideas Deserve Professional Validation

Your idea might be the next big thing. It might solve a real problem, serve an under served market, and generate excellent returns.

Or it might be an expensive lesson waiting to happen.

The only way to know the difference is through rigorous, objective feasibility analysis. Don’t let enthusiasm override evidence. Don’t let a great idea become a costly mistake.

Your idea deserves better than hope. It deserves validation.