5 Warning Signs Your Business Could Fail
5 Warning Signs Your Business Could Fail
Monday 11th August
5 Warning Signs Your Business Could Fail (And How Proper Feasibility Analysis Can Save You)
Every year, thousands of Australian businesses fail within their first two years. International companies expanding into Australia face even steeper odds. After conducting numerous feasibility studies across diverse industries, we’ve identified five critical warning signs that predict business failure, and more importantly, how to spot them before you invest your time, money, and reputation.
Warning Sign #1: You’re Solving a Problem People Don’t Pay to Fix
The most dangerous assumption in business is believing that if people complain about something, they’ll pay to fix it. This is the number one killer of new ventures.
The Reality Check: People complain about traffic, but they don’t pay premium prices for alternative transport options. They grumble about slow internet but stick with their current provider. They hate doing their taxes, but most still choose free or cheap software over premium services.
What This Looks Like:
- Your friends say, “I’d totally buy that!” but when you launch……….
- You have a solution to an obvious problem, but no one is currently paying competitors
- Your target market treats your solution as a “nice-to-have” rather than “must-have”
- You find yourself explaining why people should care about the problem
The Feasibility Reality: During our feasibility studies, we conduct rigorous market validation that goes beyond surveys and focus groups. We analyse actual purchasing behaviour, competitor pricing strategies, and customer acquisition costs in the real market, not the hypothetical one.
Warning Sign #2: If Your Only Research is Asking Friends and Family, You’re in Trouble
Your social circle is not your target market (unless you’re specifically targeting middle-aged professionals who share your interests and income level). Yet this is exactly how most business ideas get “validated.”
Why This Fails:
- Friends and family want to be supportive, so they lie
- They don’t represent your actual customer demographics
- They haven’t been through the real purchasing decision process
- They won’t give you the brutal honesty you need
What Proper Market Research Looks Like:
- Surveys with randomized, demographically appropriate samples
- Interviews with people who have no relationship with you
- Analysis of competitor customer reviews and complaints
- Direct observation of purchasing behaviour
- Price sensitivity testing with real stakes
Example: A client wanted to launch premium pet grooming services in a fixed central location on the Gold Coast. Their friends (mostly young professionals without pets) loved the idea. A feasibility study may have revealed that pet owners in that area were extremely price-sensitive and preferred mobile services over fixed locations. The feasibility study could have saved them from a $180,000 mistake.
Warning Sign #3: You Haven’t Validated Your Business Model with Real Numbers
Having a great product idea is just the beginning. Most business failures happen not because the product is bad, but because the economics don’t work.
Critical Questions Most Entrepreneurs Skip:
- What’s your actual customer acquisition cost (CAC)?
- How long is your sales cycle?
- What’s your customer lifetime value (CLV)?
- Can you achieve positive unit economics within 18 months?
- What’s your cash flow timeline to profitability?
The Feasibility Advantage: Our financial modelling goes deep into the operational realities of your industry. We don’t just project revenue, we model cash flow, seasonal variations, working capital requirements, and scenario planning for different market conditions.
Warning Sign #4: You’re Ignoring Regulatory and Compliance Requirements
This is especially critical for international companies entering Australia, but domestic businesses expanding into new sectors fall into this trap too.
Common Oversights:
- Underestimating licensing requirements and timeframes
- Missing industry-specific compliance costs
- Overlooking state vs. federal regulatory differences
- Ignoring ongoing compliance costs in financial projections
- Misunderstanding employment law requirements
Case Study: A European manufacturer wanted to launch in Australia. Their internal assessment suggested a 6-month launch timeline. A feasibility study highlighted they would need specific testing and compliance for their products, which typically takes 12-18 months and requires significant local infrastructure. This then provided a realistic and achievable launch timeframe.
Warning Sign #5: Your Success Depends on Everything Going Perfectly
If your business plan requires perfect execution, ideal market conditions, and no unexpected challenges, it’s not a business plan – it’s wishful thinking.
Red Flags:
- No contingency planning for delays or setbacks
- Aggressive timelines with no buffer
- Financial projections that only work in the “best case” scenario
- No plan for competitive responses
- Assuming immediate market acceptance
The Feasibility Solution: We conduct rigorous risk analysis and scenario modelling. Every feasibility study includes best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios, plus specific mitigation strategies for identified risks.
Don’t Become a Statistic: The Value of Professional Feasibility Analysis
The difference between successful businesses and failures often comes down to one thing: rigorous analysis before launch, not after.
A comprehensive feasibility study typically costs between $15,000-$50,000 depending on complexity. Compare that to the average cost of business failure: $180,000 for small businesses, often much more for international expansion.
What Our Feasibility Studies Include:
- Market Analysis: Real customer validation, competitive landscape, and demand quantification
- Operational Assessment: Supply chain, staffing, location, and scalability analysis
- Risk Analysis: Comprehensive risk identification and mitigation strategies
- Regulatory Compliance: Full regulatory roadmap and compliance cost modelling
- Go-to-Market Strategy: Detailed launch plan with timeline and resource requirements
“Every year, thousands of Australian businesses fail within their first two years. International companies expanding into Australia face even steeper odds. After conducting numerous feasibility studies across diverse industries, we’ve identified five critical warning signs that predict business failure, and more importantly, how to spot them before you invest your time, money, and reputation.“
Ready to Validate Your Business Idea Properly?
Don’t let your business become another failure statistic. Whether you’re an international company looking to enter the Australian market or an Australian business exploring new opportunities, a professional feasibility study can save you from costly mistakes and identify the path to sustainable success.
Contact FBS Consulting today for a complimentary 30-minute feasibility assessment. We’ll help you understand whether your business idea has what it takes to succeed – before you invest everything in finding out the hard way.
📩 https://fbsconsulting.com.au/book-appointment/
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